Agent Insight: Fall Market in the DMV

By: Daniel Luke Jones

September 12th, 2023

Picture it: September every year in the DMV. Your kids are back to school and a few weeks into their new routine. You’re still rocking your tan from your 10-day vacation in August. The humidity and heat don’t seem quite as unbearable as they were a few months ago. And then the For Sale signs start popping up.

September marks the beginning of the fall market in this area and we should expect to see inventory increase as more sellers and buyers enter the market.

Now I know you may be asking yourself: “But what about interest rates?!?”. National real estate-related headlines for the past few years have run the gamut from “Money Is Free!” to “Interest Rate Hikes AGAIN!”. But what exactly does that mean?

Over the past few years, we have certainly seen the market perform outside of expectations. But who could have predicted a global pandemic? The Covid years skew our data and we are only just now approaching a normalization of the market. So those terrible, scary headlines that the housing market is going to crash because of the higher interest rates? They are there to sell papers and clicks. We can’t compare those Covid years to where we are now; the context was completely different. Instead it is more important to look at mortgage rates over the last 20-40 years that consists of the ups and downs in the economy.

By looking at historical rates, you are able to analyze the real estate and mortgage markets. Keeping in mind, especially in the transient DC metro area, there are always people who need to sell and people who need to buy.

For anyone who may be waiting for interest rates to lower, what we typically see is that as interest rates decrease, home prices increase because of the increased number of buyers. So you could wait to buy your dream home waiting for the interest rates to decrease but once they do, the price you’ll pay for that dream home will likely also increase, ultimately leaving you where you would have been buying at a higher interest rate but lower sales price. Because once the interest rates start to decrease, you can refinance at the lower interest rate.

As for a seller in this market? You shouldn’t let the interest rates deter you from moving up to that “dream home” or right-sizing so you can use that equity for those dream vacations. There remains an extremely low supply of homes for sale with approximately a 3 month supply, meaning if no additional homes came on the market, within 3 months there would be no homes for sale. In addition, there are plenty of motivated buyers who are still actively searching for homes and are craving more options.

Whether you are thinking about buying a new home, selling your existing, looking at potential investment opportunities, or if you still have questions about dipping your toes into this current market, reach out to your Wardman Residential at Compass Team Member who will be happy to schedule a convenient time to strategize with you about your real estate and financial goals. Our team specializes in helping you maximize the value of your home and helping you make the best financial decision.

DANIEL LUKE JONES

REALTOR® DC/MD/VA

Phone: 919.695.2136

Email: Daniel@WardmanRE.com